PART I – UNCERTAINTY IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE

Session 1 (23.02.2016): Introduction
Feynman, Richard. 1998. “The Uncertainty of Science.” In The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen Scientist, 1–29. Reading MA: Perseus Books.
Assignment: What does Feynman mean when he says that “all scientific knowledge is uncertain.” In what sense is Feynman’s statement true, and to what extent might it be misleading?

Session 2 (01.03.2016): Induction and the Uncertainty of Science
Ladyman, James. 2002. Understanding Philosophy of Science. Abingdon; New York: Routledge. Chapter 1: Induction and Inductivism
Assignment: 1) Give an example for a deductive argument that is valid. Give an example for a deductive argument that is valid and sound. Explain the meaning of “validity” and “soundness” in this context. 2) Give an example for an inductive argument and explain why it is not valid.

Session 3 (08.03.2016): Induction and the Uncertainty of Science
Ladyman, James. 2002. Understanding Philosophy of Science. Abingdon; New York: Routledge. Chapter 2: The Problem of Induction and Other Problems With Inductivism
Assignment: Compare the following inferences: 1) All pieces of copper conduct electricity. Therefore, the next piece of copper that I will encounter will also conduct electricity. 2) All people in this room speak English and they all entered the room through the door. Therefore, the next person who enters the room through the door will also speak English. What is the difference between the two inferences? Focus on the difference between the two all-sentences.

Session 4 (15.03.2016): The Psychology of Risk and Decision Making
Hastie, Reid, and Robyn M. Dawes. 2009. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. Los Angeles: SAGE Publications.
Chapter 1: Thinking and Deciding

Session 5 (22.03.2016): The Psychology of Risk and Decision Making
Hastie, Reid, and Robyn M. Dawes. 2009. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. Los Angeles: SAGE Publications.
Chapter 2: What Is Decision Making?

Session 6 (05.04.2016): The Quantification of Uncertainty and the Dawn  Subjective Probability
Ramsey, Frank P. 1931. “Truth and Probability (1926).” In The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, edited by R. B. Braithwaite. London: Kegan Paul.
Assignment: Use all sources available (literature, internet, smart colleagues etc.) to collect information on the so-called Ellsberg paradox. Describe the paradox using the example of the urns and the colored balls. Explain what the paradox shows and why the distinction between risk and uncertainty is important for the interpretation of the paradox.

PART II – UNCERTAINTY IN THE SCIENCES

Session 7 (12.04.2016): Wrap-up

Session 8 (19.04.2016): Uncertainty in Economics. The Limits of Forecasting
Derman, Emanuel. 2011. Models. Behaving. Badly. Why Confusing Illusion with Reality can lead to Disaster on Wall Street and in Life. New York: Free Press. Chapter 5: The Inadequate.
Lecture Slides
Assignment: 1) Identify the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. 2) Find examples of how markets conflict with the assumptions of the hypothesis. You can use historical cases or examples from today’s markets. 3) How can the idealized assumptions of the hypothesis still be justified?

Session 9 (26.04.2016): Complexity, Chaos, Unpredictability
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House Publishing Group. Chapter 11: How to Look for Bird Poop.
Assignment: Watch the debate between Nassim Taleb and Didier Sornette. Imagine you are a science journalist. Write a short article that summarizes the controversy and carves out the key points of disagreement between the two positions.

Session 10 (03.05.2016): Complexity, Chaos, Unpredictability
Ladyman, James, James Lambert, and Karoline Wiesner. 2013. “What Is a Complex System?” European Journal for Philosophy of Science 3 (1): 33–67.
Assignment: Watch the lecture by Roman Frigg on itunes. Define the term “Structural Model Error” and briefly discuss the consequences of SME on predictability. (See also Frigg et al. 2014).

Session 11 (10.05.2016): Uncertianty in Climate Science. The Impact of Model Error
Tebaldi, Claudia, and Reto Knutti. 2007. “The Use of the Multi-Model Ensemble in Probabilistic Climate Projections.” Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences 365 (1857): 2053–75.
Lecture Slides
Assignment: Consider the following statement: “The chance of rain tomorrow at 12pm in Zurich is 80%.” What does this statement mean? Explain why the following statement seems odd: “The chance of rain tomorrow at 12pm in Zurich is 50%, because either it will rain or it won’t rain tomorrow at 12pm in Zurich.”

Session 12 (17.05.2016): Uncertainty in Environmental Decision Making. The Normative Aspects of Uncertainty
Bschir, Karim. 2016. “Risk , Uncertainty and Precaution in Science: The Case of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern Approach in Food Toxicology.” (forthcoming in Science and Engeneering Ethics).
Lecture Slides
Assignment: Read the article by Sven Ove Hansson entitled From the Casino to the Jungle. Explain what Hansson means by the Tuxedo Fallacy. Discuss the fallacy briefly.

Session 13 (24.05.2016): Uncertainty, Inductive Risk and Values in Science
Douglas, Heather. 2007. “Rejecting the Ideal of Value-Free Science.” In Value-Free Science: Ideal or Illusion, edited by John Dupre, Harold Kincaid, and Alison Wylie. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press.
Assignment: Read the article by Robert Merton entitled The Normative Structure of Science. Name the four institutal norms that Merton suggest and briefly state their content.

Session 14 (31.05.2016):Uncertainty, Inductive Risk and Values in Science
Wrap-up
Assignment: Do you think that scientists bear a special responsibility in society? If so, specify the nature and the scope of that responsibility. If not, provide an argument why the responsibility of scientists does not exceed that of other citizens.