Induction and The Uncertainty of Science
Hume, David. 1748. An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding. London: A. Millar. “Section V. Sceptical Solution of These Doubts.”
Popper, Karl R. 2002. Conjectures and Refutations. London. New York: Routledge. “Science: Conjectures and Refutations (1957).”
Popper, Karl R. 2002/1959. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London. New York: Routledge. “Part I: Introduction to the Logic of Science.”
Popper in an interview explaining falsificationism (in German):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO2az5Eb3H0
Goodman, Nelson. Fact, Fiction, and Forecast (1954), Cambridge MA; London: Harvard University Press, 1983. “Chapter II. The Passing of the Possible.” “Chapter III. The New Riddle of Induction.”
The Psychology of Risk and Decision Making
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. 1974. “Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (4157): 1124–1131.
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica.
Tversky, A, and D Kahneman. 1981. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.” Science 211 (4481): 453–458.
Hastie, Reid, and Robyn M. Dawes. 2009. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks: SAGE.
The Quantification of Uncertainty and the Dawn of Subjective Probability
Ellsberg, Daniel. 1961. “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 75 (4): 643–69.
Morgan, Millett Granger, and Max Henrion. 1990. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (Chapter 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty).
Morgenstern, Oskar. 1979. Some Reflections on Utility. In M. Allais & O. Hagen (Eds.), Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox: Contemporary Discussions of the Decisions under Uncertainty with Allais’ Rejoinder (pp. 175–183). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.
Hansson, Sven Ove. 2009. “From the Casino to the Jungle.” Synthese 168 (3): 423–32.
McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch. 2011. The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy. New Haven: Yale University Press. Chapter 1: Causes in the Air.
Uncertainty in Economics
Betz, Gregor. 2011. “Prediction.” In Handbook of Philosophy of Social Science, edited by Ian Jarvie and Jesus Zamora-Bonilla. Sage.
Friedman, Milton. 1953. “The Methodology of Positive Economics.” In Essays in Positive Economics, 1–38. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Hayek, Friedrich. 1945. “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” The American Economic Review 35 (4): 519-530.
Knight, Frank.1921. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Hart. Boston, MA: Schaffner & Marx, Houghton Mifflin Company.
Lo, Andrew W., and Mart T. Mueller. 2010. “WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!” Journal of Investment Management (8): 13-63.
Perlman, Mark. McCann, Charles. 1996. “Varieties of Uncertainty“, in: C. Schmidt (Ed.), Uncertainty in Economic Thought, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar: 9-21.
Morgenstern, Oskar. 1928. Wirtschaftsprognose : Eine Untersuchung Ihrer Voraussetzungen und Möglichkeiten. Wien: Springer.
Neumann, John von. 2004. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Edited by Oskar Morgenstern. 60th anniversary edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Complexity, Chaos, Unpredictability
Frigg, Roman, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du, and Leonard A. Smith. 2014. “Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices.” Philosophy of Science 81 (1): 31–59.
Smith, L. A. (2007). Chaos a Very Short Introduction. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.
Smith, P. (1999). Explaining Chaos. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Uncertianty in Climate Science
Betz, Gregor. 2015. “Are Climate Models Credible Worlds? Prospects and Limitations of Possibilistic Climate Prediction.” European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2): 191–215.
Frigg, Roman, Leonard A Smith, and David A. Stainforth. 2013. “The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09.” Philosophy of Science 80 (5): 886–97.
Frigg, Roman, Erica Thompson, and Charlotte Werndl. 2015. “Philosophy of Climate Science Part I : Observing Climate Change.” Philosophy Compass 12: 953–64.
Frigg, Roman, Erica Thompson, and Charlotte Werndl. . 2015. “Philosophy of Climate Science Part II : Modelling Climate.” Philosophy Compass 12: 965–77.
Knutti, Reto, and Jan Sedláček. 2012. “Robustness and Uncertainties in the New CMIP5 Climate Model Projections.” Nature Climate Change 3 (4): 369–73.
Slingo, J., and T. Palmer. 2011. “Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369 (October): 4751–67.
Smith, Leonard A, and Nicholas Stern. 2011. “Uncertainty in Science and Its Role in Climate Policy.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369 (1956): 4818–41.
Uncertainty in Environmental Decision Making
Kadvany, John. 1996. “Taming Chance: Risk and the Quantification of Uncertainty.” Policy Sciences 29 (1): 1–27.
Sprenger, Jan. 2012. “Environmental Risk Analysis: Robustness Is Essential for Precaution.” Philosophy of Science 79 (5): 881–92.
Uncertainty, Inductive Risk and Values in Science
Dietz, Thomas. 2013. “Bringing Values and Deliberation to Science Communication.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110 Suppl : 14081–7.
Douglas, Heather. 2000. “Inductive Risk and Values in Science.” Philosophy of Science 67 (4): 559–579.
Heather Douglas on the responsibility of scientists.
Kitcher, Philip. 2004. “Responsible Biology.” BioScience 54 (4): 331.
Merton, Robert K. 1973. “The Normative Structure of Science.” In The Sociology of Science. Theoretical and Empirical Investigations, edited by Norman W. Storer. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Schurz, G., & Carrier, M. (Eds.). (2013). Werte in den Wissenschaften: neue Ansätze zum Werturteilsstreit. Berlin: Suhrkamp.
Wilholt, Torsten. 2009. “Bias and Values in Scientific Research.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 40 (1) (March): 92–101.
Wolpert, Lewis. 2005. “Is Science Dangerous? The Medawar Lecture 1998.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 360 (1458): 1253–1258.
And… all you need to know about science communication.